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14/09/23
17:00
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Originally posted by Proga:
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Not in the short term. Graphite being the new lithium talk started in 2022 when demand growth was booming before China put the kibosh on it by switching to a higher synthetic blend in 2023. I've been kicking myself about not seeing it coming. As you know, I was constantly posting in here last year about all the new synthetic plants being built as they were announced and didn't put 2 and 2 together. I even researched each company to see if they were synthetic or natural producers but failed to take my thought process one step further to the final conclusion. The more EV's on the road, the less ICE. Synthetic is made from pet coke, a by-product from refining oil into petrol for ICE vehicles. So synthetic isn't a long term solution. The other problems is the amount of power used to manufacture synthetic and the less range you get using a higher blend of synthetic. China isn't using 100% synthetic so as the market share of EV's increase the more natural is required but at a much lower rate than predicted in 2022. Hopefully the BMI report about Tesla using 50%-55% natural is correct and continues for vehicles produced in the west. The west has only just started building large battery manufacturing plants so the demand for natural from the west will start accelerating from next year as they come online. Samsung, POSCO, Panasonic, LGES etc have recognised this and have started building natural AAM and CAM plants to meet the forecast demand so are signing MOU's for natural concentrate feed stock. 2023 has put the forecasts for natural back a year or two. The whole thing is looking more geopolitical every day. China is using subsidies and probably under the table kick backs to the raw material producers as I've suggested before to lower prices so Chinese EV manufacturers can flood western markets with cheaper EV's destroying the competition. It will be interest to see how the west responds because China's tactics are making it had for start-up raw material miners and manufactures to survive. As I keep saying, getting Vidalia to 45kt is the key. US battery anode manufactures will buy everything Vidalia producers and along with off-takes from other AAM producers will fortify Balama as a profit maker through economy of scale. The competition from other miners of natural graphite fines in tiny and will remain so for the next 5-8 years as growth from the west will outstrip whatever they can mine. I still haven't ruled out SYR having to expand Balama. I think they'll start extracting the vanadium if/when they do. The DFC loan points in that direction. Why the hell does SYR need a 2nd TSF (tailings storage facility for those who didn't watch the video I posted) if they don't have enough production to fill the first. So in summary, I believe 24/25 will be the turning point in SYR's fortunes when the west finally gets off the dime, starting with Vidalia going into commercial production. The anti-dote for Shorters is revenue.
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I know my previous response is loaded. however, i do love graphite as a companion. I mean to say that ignoring SYR. I dont understand the paraphernalia, of graphite replaces lithium, which should be first thing. But we have forest gump. stupid is stupid does. I was meaning graphite in general. minus russia and afrika, coz assassination's. Which is hash related, and i got no buds... hash assasins. Generally I think graphite cannot be replaced. I'd like to know more.