Collision Division results are pretty stark. On the surface AMA looks like a company that has been existing for the benefit of its customers at the expense of its shareholders over past few years - a form of wealth transfer from AMA shareholders to Insurance shareholders or customers. I don't know enough about the industry to say whether Suncorp and others have too much negotiating power or whether it's a case of not having good cost control.
I haven't really been following the capital raise but given current share price, if Canaccord end up as the largest shareholder, the execs who did the underwriting deal will be under pressure to try to get their money back asap. So I wouldn't be surprised if they start sounding the market out early on with regard to the heavy vehicle division. My guess though is that they'll want more than 4 times pre-AASB 16 EBITDA - due to stronger revenue position of that division. Before they do any sale they'll need to find a CEO who knows the industry and can make some hard decisions - Collision Division can't carry on as it is. Whether any of this can happen with current board is a question.
They have a bit of time to sort things out. Based on the recent 2024 FY guidance my "back of envelope" calculation was that they would probably be cash flow neutral in FY 2024 - though with a small NPBT loss. Doesn't look "investable" to me in its current form - I'm surprised that Aust Super were still in there (may be out now ?).
AMA Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
