Appreciate your more tempered/considered reply, @eastwest101 - as it was a legitimate question.
As rare as it is, HotCopper can be a repository of useful information.
And completely unrelated to Cyprium and Nifty, you and I were once invested in the same play a decade or so ago, so our paths crossed at that time. I vaguely recall that you have mining experience. And I also recall enjoying some of your posts at that time - hence another reason that I was seeking further clarification of your comments regarding the Nifty asset (specifically around your geology and metallurgy points).
I truly hope you haven’t formed your view of Nifty based on the ol’ legacy chestnut “MLX couldn’t make Nifty work, so it stands to reason that Cyprium can’t”. This tired line has been trotted out by many of late, but every time I seek further clarification on this point, everyone remains silent.
To repeat a line that has been used ad nauseam for some time now, MLX ran an underground op at Nifty. This team are looking at heap leaching & open pit. That one mining company failed to make the asset work using a completely different mining method shouldn’t automatically preclude a new team from making it work using a different method. If you think heap leaching won’t work at Nifty, please elaborate why you have reached this conclusion, otherwise I can only conclude that your statement is based on MLX’s failure with the asset (which is of no use/relevance to me).
I think it is pertinent to keep in mind that Nifty has historically produced more than 200,000 tonnes of copper cathode using a heap leaching process. Not an insignificant amount and proof that heap leaching has actually worked. In total, it has produced more than 700,000 tonnes of copper metal between 1993-2019.
I agree with you re: the technical challenges involved with the restart, but I also hold the view that these issues are surmountable. And you have basically admitted that at some point (not that long ago), you also held this view. I hope Cyprium's prior failure to secure the bond hasn’t clouded your judgement as to the viability of the Nifty asset from a mining perspective. Their financing failure had more to do with capital markets at the time, the way in which the company structured the restart study & the bond issuer changing the terms at a very late hour. New crew in, new approach being adopted via the integrated scoping study based on a super pit (oxides + sulphides). No guarantees that they will secure the finance for the restart capex - that's the punt. We should know by mid-2024 (a 9-month wait & see for me).
As I mentioned the other day, Phase 1 involves a retreat of the historic heaps (estimated inventory of 17.16mt @ 0.53% Cu for ~91kt of copper metal). Cyprium are three years away (after starting production) from getting into the sulphides. Phase 1 isn’t too technically challenging. When I originally conducted my DD into this, I held some reservations as to the strip ratio (around 6), but will worry about that down the track. As you rightly know, mining is capital intensive and plagued with a raft of production issues. Seldom does “nothing go wrong”.
Cyprium have 5x the contained copper of True North Copper (which I see you are holding). And now have circa A$30m in cash unlike TNC who are scrapping the barrel with $3.5m & yet to prove +CF since the restart. This isn’t meant as a dig of TNC. It may prove to be a handy operation, albeit a much smaller (10-15ktpa) op than what Cyprium has envisaged.
Lastly, no one is claiming that Cyprium is at the lower end of the cost curve. It isn't. I did point out the other day that C1 costs are on a par with Sandfire's Matsa mine. Globally, the industry cost curve is steepening, as average head grades decline and as fewer Tier 1 assets are brought online. In 2021, the average AISC of copper production rose 16.2% YOY to US$2.12 per pound. It would be higher now. And if you are a copper bull & believe LT prices will be above say US$4/lb, then surely you can do the numbers and see that this works at that price point?
I think most investors are cognisant of the risks here, however, I am not prepared to throw the towel in just yet. I believe the new management team will secure the finance and that Cyprium will bring Nifty into production by mid-2025. I may also be wrong.
Thanks kindly for your reply.
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