Surprised to see such an inexorable decline in recent weeks. I’m guessing it’s a single strong seller or two.
It’s always a bit concerning when supposedly sophisticated others have drawn the opposite conclusion to one’s own view. Still, some institutions can have very short-term horizons and care too much about “window-dressing”, and are reluctant to “wait it out” in the manner necessary for investors in turn-around stocks.
I agree fully with what Tren1 (among others) have been posting. Talk of “bankruptcy” seems ridiculous to me. There are solutions to the current ongoing financial “squeeze” SGR is experiencing, and one of these will be implemented. It will likely be unpalatable, but that already seems well and truly baked into the share price. Indeed, the share price is approaching a level which suggests the idea that there is a “going concern” risk IS being seriously entertained. I just don’t buy that.
I think what may happen is that once refinancing is announced, and the fine is sorted, then no matter how bad those outcomes might seem to be, the “certainty” gained from having them at last in the rear view mirror may well result in a relief rally.
In any case, short term movements in the share price are of little consequence if an investor really believes a stock is trading at a discount to what it should be, and has the stomach to wait, for years if necessary, for this to be put right. If we ARE of that view, we really should be looking to add a bit more to our holding on the way down, as I note several of us are indeed doing. I’ve bought seven times now, four times since we fell under a dollar, and I think another purchase might now be imminent. I’ve never lost confidence that all these sub $1 purchases will be in the money at some point.
If it wasn’t for such obvious and determined institutional selling (and also Elio D’Mato’s fairly negative tweet about “gambling responsibly” which surprised me a bit) I’d be calling this a screaming buy, based on the quality of the assets held and possession of a casino licence (which remains effectively “a licence to print money” and is very difficult to acquire).
Look, there’s always short term danger in trying to “catch a falling knife” as some of us are trying to do here. But should we nevertheless be looking to cautiously and gradually add at these prices whilst awaiting a more favourable environment for this stock? Yes, I believe so, because I think the risk of a “company ending” event which would deny us the dawn after our long dark night is actually very, very small.
Expand
(20min delay)