Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view. .
. Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view. . .This week I have put a Video around how the Spot Market works. I found it useful. Its a bit long, but for any U fanatics well worth one look to understand a bit more from an insider - because as we all know U market is very opaque. The only thing I didn't like is Mr Bram not buying U stocks but holding other commodities - individual choice, but kept me thinking why he would do that, he can see the boom but is still not buying, explanation was not very convincing . .
There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks. . .
How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-
SP 500 after making a few 52 week on July 27 is in pullback mode for last 2 months
For last few weeks it was in choppy mode around 4450 level, but this week decided to make its journey down.
Of the numbers I have been calling for downside, 4330/4300/4250/4200 - we have lost the first now of 4330, SP 500 at 4320 on Friday. For further downside these numbers will come into play
Last week I said we are crossroads/delicately balanced - this week we are in semi-free down flow
Many resistance levels have been broken, so its looking weak
Upside - another retest of 4600 before getting to 4800 all time high. Many talk of 4550 as key level
Lead indicators deteriorated for the week - VIX, Yields and Dollar Index increased. Sentiment Indicator is now at Fear at 36. Just few months back we were at Extreme Greed at 82 - so we can see how market has changed
Overall trend from October is still uptrend. There will be pullbacks. So at high level (those holding longs etc) the uptrend is still intact. Those looking for swing, short-term trades, some volatility may be in place
. . What will happen next week - General Markets:
US markets had a small drop on Friday, over 0.2%. U stocks were still in green and Li stocks were in red. ASX may have the same trend.
Last 10 days of September is the most bearish period of the year. Many believe we may bottom towards the end of next week
SP 500 now in real test of pullback. Needs to hold 4200 in worst case, but some believe we may go down to around 4250 and may reverse - so another 2% or so
Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US, China and now Inflation Increasing suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
Although we could reverse from here, odds of falling a bit more before reversing has higher probability
Uranium sector has decoupled around 70% now from general markets, especially down trend. It may still get affected, but may hold a lot. Even on Friday when resource stocks were falling, U stocks were well in green and 6 out of 28 stocks I track made a 52 week high this week
. . Personally: My situation same as I mentioned last week. Its just Uranium, Uranium and more Uranium. As I have been writing for last 2 months, Uranium was looking like making a move and I had started moving everything there, I complete full move just over a month back. During this period many stocks have doubled and average increase around 80% in the sector. I sincerely hope other people taking any cue from me also did well. I feel we have done Stage 2 of 5 Stages I anticipate. First stage was a gain of around 30%, which it did multiple times in last 18 months but never move to Stage 2. This time it did. Which was another 50% increase on top of Stage 1. It is consolidating here. Next stage 3 we could see another 50% swing in the next month or 2. Caution - this is an optimistic view, anything can happen, U sector has some risks which I have posted couple of weeks back if anyone interested, so please dyor as anything can happen . . Stock/Sector specific Info:
We are now playing 4.6 to 5.9 zone. We need to get over 5.9, next number is 6.8. If things go bad, we need to hold 4.6. The CR process has pushed us down a bit.
Monday I am thinking we may start our journey towards 5.9
On Thursday around 490m new shares will be issued, could bring in some volatility
Personally for U stocks I am 50/60% long on average (do not trade at all), 30% I do short term trades - ups and downs or rotations as some shares go in front and others lag, 10% keep cash. I feel due to CR now AGE is fairly undervalued hence rotating some into AGE for now, bought a number of times this week with an average of just over 5. On average on any U run I hold at least 10 U stocks, just to balance the risk and for rotation purpose
On Friday US U stocks were up, so it bodes well for Monday. Most indicators now show that we are moving away from a lot of moving averages - many feel some retrace would be healthy otherwise at some stage we may have a big drop - something to keep an eye for those following charts etc
U stocks lost 5% this week - 5% up for the year. Last week we gained 16%, so consolidation in play
6 stocks made a new 52 week high - all early in the week
U future gained $3.50c this week to reach $65.50 (Trading view, many platforms have higher numbers). So very good last 2 months. 18 months back target for restarts was 80. With inflation during that, now we need a number between 90 and 100, and to stay there, not spike for short period.
After last week, I believe we are around 70% decoupled from general markets., much better look than few weeks back
My only worries, only for short-term, is that general markets may drop a bit more. But more importantly the stocks rising without consolidation and getting away from moving averages- so some consolidation, small pullbacks would be healthy, otherwise as generals markets moved from Extreme Greed to Fear now, we could also move from Euphoria to Fear if there is a sudden big fall
. . . Here is the Figures for the Week: . . . . . .Video around how U market works
AGE Price at posting:
5.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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