The best case economics for this project would be to mine the best grade ore first, plus any credits, so you are back to considering GVP plus Yarrabubba, for 12,5000tpa V2O5. Leave the oxidised ore in the ground for 20 years. You can't double the V2O5 production, because then the capex would blow out to >$1 billion. So its what TMT were proposing to do. As you say that's hard enough to get the numbers to work, with say a $700m capex. Likely need to see a V2O5 price in excess of $10.00/lb to make it work and get a decent NPV. Now throw in massive extra dilution due to the merger ? The economics and upside for any shareholder will look much worse. The combined entity will have bugger all investment value. TMT should be going alone, and wait for an upturn in the V2O5 price. AVL have no chance to get finance for their project, unless they grab TMT's assets.
All IMHO, DYOR
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