NCK 2.33% $15.12 nick scali limited

Ann: Full Year Results Announcement NCK, page-46

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  1. 847 Posts.
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    Viewed any way, that's way too cheap; not just intuitively, but also compared to the stock's history: NCK's P/E multiple over time has averaged around 14-15 times.

    I run this sort of table for most companies in which I have an interest, with a view to getting a feel for the reasonableness of the SP at any time. The following table supports your idea about where investors like to see NCK sit in terms of SP. You suggested 14-15 times. The share prices I collected were on or about 30th June so the P/E's were a little lower. They almost always rise from their 30th June position after their result announcement because their prior period outlooks are always quite conservative, and they very seldom fail to surprise to the upside.
    And with June, as I remember reading (by somebody) and noting, June and July represent that point in time that's furthest from the last moment of truth.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5608/5608730-29cc7133b2a6c1c7240854eb7e130f79.jpg

    The last row suggests the P/E at today's price if the 2024 EPS was to be $0.80, a conservative number, I think.
    I think their ever-increasing success is due to the new stores that appear every year and, which I suspect, hit the ground running and are cash flow positive, almost from the moment they open.
    Their constant advertising pretty much guarantees that potential customers aren't going to walk by for the first six months wondering what they do.
    Their manufacturing-to-order makes them different to a traditional retailer / stockist so their Balance Sheet, in the main, remains clean.
 
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