General Discussion Topics, page-120097

No, they're actually not, they've just left here due to all the BS recently. The forum has been bombarded by certain characters all of whom supposedly don't hold but have a heck of a lot to say. That combined with the share price drop have made this forum quite a toxic and banal space now, so many longer term holders are avoiding for the time being as very little decent discourse or information is presented here nowadays.

This will likely change as and when the share price starts to rebound and when some of the little mossies trying to suck the life out of Sayona either get swatted by a solid rise in share price or finally decide to move elsewhere, whenever that might be.



Sentiment in the sector will change, lithium price will bottom (it basically has levelled for somw time now to be fair), announcements and new will come, and share price will rebound.

Moblan drill results?
New CEO and board members?
Full year results?
September quarterly report?
News and discussion at AGM?
Moblan DFS?
NAL nameplate reached?
Offtake or strategic partnership deal?
Government grants?

All and any of this is coming over the next few months imo, and any of these events combined with a change or sentiment or lithium price have the potential to change our share price direction considerably in the short term.



Patience. We haven't just suddenly misplaced 100mt of lithium bearing ore or locked ourselves out of the NAL plant lol...


I think something that is very important and that is often overlooked is also very worth mentioning here too; our mining operator hasn't just left or stopped working.

They are on a fixed 4 year contract. 24/7. I think the world seems to have forgotten this fact.

https://mineconnect.com/article/sayona-awards-147m-mining-contract-to-l-fourier-et-fils-for-restarting-lithium-mine/

Fournier & Fils is conducting all mining operations for NAL on a fixed price 4 year contract, if mining costs increase that is NOT OUR PROBLEM...

All this talk of cost blow outs during mining and ramp up and no profit on our sales etc etc... am I missing something? Where is that all coming from?

"Sayona Mining (ASX: SYA) is closer to the restart of production at its North American Lithium (NAL) project in La Corne, Quebec, as it awarded a four-year, $200 million ($147m) contract to Quebec company L. Fournier et Fils for mining operatons.

This is one of the largest such contracts ever signed in Quebec, and it is expected to create 120 new jobs to be filled from the region of Abitibi-Temiscamingue, including the Pikogan and Lac Simon First Nations communities.

Fournier will be responsible for the supervision of all stripping and drilling, blasting, loading, and transportation of ore and waste rock. The contractor will also maintain the site roads and all other services."




Also, the DFS cost per tonne and ASIC is based on using Authier ore as well, a vital point that I think the entire world seems to have forgotten here.



We can only use numbers from the recent combined DFS until real world numbers and shown in the quarterly report, and even then, NAL is still in ramp up during this quarter so operating costs are obviously higher per tonne.

However, crucially operating total cash cost per tonne from the DFS WITHOUT USING AUTHIER ORE IS ONLY C$697/t (US$517/t).
(Refer to Table 15 page 37 - cash cost/t C$817 including Authier ore. Authier ore is purchased @ C$120/t, so therefore without Authier feed C$697/t).

So that would then still leave NAL with US$383/t margin from the Piedmont sales at US$900/t, let alone the JV market priced sales.

At 113ktpa making US$383/t then NAL could still rake in a pre tax profit of U$43m from PLL sales.

If you then use the same operating cost but selling the JV sales at say an ultra conservative US$2,250 ($2500@SC6) then at nameplate that would be another 113ktpa with a total margin of US$211m!


So, based on the ACTUAL OPERATING CASH COST PERT TONNE FROM THE DFS as stated above, NAL could stand to make, even with market pricing at a low $2500/t SC6, around US$254m in pre tax profit
(doubt there will be any tax this first year anyway) in the first year of steady state production before Authier comes online.

That's A$396m. Sayona's 75% of that is A$297m.

That people is one third of our current entire market cap in profit in just the first year just from our share of NAL if we meet the operating cash cost of the DFS from April this year which everyone seems to have totally forgotten about amongst all the drama and downramping and poor board optics.

Those are some big numbers. Apply a price to earning ratio similar to PLS say and, well, you see my point. Our current share price has detached from the reality of Sayona's fundamentals and what we actually have as a company.



I reccomend everyone to go and read pages 35, 36 & 37 of the DFS that I stress again was released on 14th April THIS YEAR when NAL was already under way with production..... these numbers weren't dreamt up 3 years ago people.

There could be some major surprises come the December quarterly report (when revenue really starts to show due to shipping times) for many in the market imo.




Sentiment will turn and when it does things can move quickly with this stock, especially now at these prices.

Macquarie reckons there is 104% at this price, I personally reckon more like 200% once these production numbers are proven. If lithium prices pick up and the Moblan DFS drops a bomb, then think higher again. As I said yesterday, any holder should go and read Allkem's announcement yesterday for their James Bay project and have a think about what we are really sitting on here.

Under 20c share price is an absolute joke imo.