bongo drums, page-7

Yes Kingswood I agree. It bottomed out due to a series of delays and what seemed like perpetual small capital raisings. While we arent necessarily completely out of the tunnel yet I believe we have seen the bottom and the upside potential is now significantly greater than the downside.

Like you say it ran to 9.5c only a few months ago on the back of FP#1 well alone. Back then it had no other assets. The partners in FP have been very slow to move forward with FP thus many traders lost interest and the SP fell back considerably as investment money went elsewhere.

But anybody looking at VILs potential should consider several things:

a) FP still has the same potential (if not greater) than it did when the SP was 300% higher than it is now. When will that potential be realised and exactly how big is it? I believe we will find that out in coming months.

b) VIL now has considerably more prospects than it did only a few months ago. The addition of a stake in Bongo and the myriad of prospects that come from the merger with PASS mean that VIL is no longer an entity with all its eggs in one basket.

c) The recently announced merger should bring additional cost benefits which has previously been described. The additional cash flow in itself should be a huge benefit until income from oil and gas sales start coming from a number of the projects that are well underway.


If VIL can run to 9.5c on speculation of FP#1 alone what is it really worth today with so many additional prospects ? From where I sit the upside looks much greater than the downside. The possible downside is 2.3c. The upside is unlimited but if it only gets back to the Feb 9.5c price then thats more than 300% upside.

It the rumours of what may be down the first hole at FP prove correct and the mystery delays are a result of the partners being in confidential negotiations to get FP#2 drilled over the unexpectedly found mystery mother load then 9.5c may well prove to be a fraction of the potential.

I believe that VIL is worth considerably more than the current share price reflects based on potential alone. However all investors need to recognise that the risks are real in this game and currently the share price is dirt cheap because the exact likelihood of this potential being realised in coming months is hard to determine. Many simply arent comfortable with the risks, others arent happy with the wishy washy timeframes and will sit on the sidelines until the horizon becomes clearer.

What I know from experience is that it may only take one announcement and the stock could move considerably. Since I don't know which day that announcement may come I choose to be in and wait for an announcement about the true logging results from FP#1 and the drilling plan for FP#2. I do understand why others may wait but for me the equation is simple. If the rewards are considerably greater than the risks and the probability looks no worse than 50:50 then I'll be in it every time.

This is not investment advice and people have to make up their own minds on the risks, rewards and the probability. I openly declare that I am a shareholder and have recently purchased more shares in VIL for reasons established herein. I express my views solely for the purpose of maintaining perspective on why VILs SP is currently what it is. I not a trader and have absolutely no interest in short term share price increases resulting from a few newbies getting in. If FP / Bongo etc do well then VIL will do well and shareholders should be very well rewarded.