If you dont mind me saying Pignik, that's a very simplistic way of calculating the PCL SP in relation to the potential Sintana SP movement.
A quick peak behind the curtain then:
Firstly Sintana has an
indirect interest in Custos Investments (Pty) Ltd who
currently have a 15% interest in PEL87.
That's an indirect interest in Custos not a direct interest. In other words they have an interest in something that that has an interest in Custos Investments which they tout as being 7.3% indirect ownership of the overall license but don't publish the detail behind it.
Worst case they own something that owns something that has a interest in Custos.
There is also the interesting situation of Custos having a seat on the BOD of Sintana.
An unkind commentator would say that part of that could be to ensure Sintana do what they are told and
hard pump Custos, but who knows.
They also dont mention that upon successful farm-in Custos drops to 14% interest with 1% going to PCL along with $2.5M USD cash from WDS
Inconvenient for Sintana and Custos!
Check out the link for just 1 example of Sintana conducting a
hard pump of Custos.It is very disingenuous to say Custos just wrapped up the 3D survey of PEL87
There is no direct line of benefit for Sintana to pump PCL so this is why Sintana
hard pump Custos and big note their supposed relationship with Woodside and minimise any
mention PCL.
Custos dont appear on the top 20 shareholder list for PCL either (unless they have it through another investment arm)
So then the only immediate way Custos can benefit is by Sintana's SP rising and then later once oil production starts sometime in the 2030's
Secondly PCL will be at a direct 20% interest at 1st drill and Sintana will not even be close to that so that needs to be factored in.
Dont forget the exchange rate calculation at 1.15
When news breaks which company do you think will do better, PCL who has direct ownership in the license or Sintana who has an obscure indirect position in Custos ?
The news will break like this "Woodside acquires 56% interest in PCL's hot prospect PEL87 in Namibia"
There won't be any mention of Custos nor Sintana unless they are out there
pay pumping like crazy.
The problem Sintana has: they have no control, no direct ownership, and a small indirect chunk of the pie.
Sintana may well benefit $1C from their indirect interest in PEL87 if PEL87 is what we suspect it is.
After all a rising tide lifts all boats (unless of course they are leaky)
But PCL will outperform Sintana as their position is undeniably much stronger.
Let me put it this way, it is my opinion that if Sintana benefit by $1C from PEL then PCL's gain will be substantially higher.
(20min delay)