Good News & Bad News, page-34105

For all the "activity" that has resulted in our SP dropping like a stone, we only have to wait a few weeks, at most, before our quarterly results (FY24, Q1) will be announced.

Thanks to the excellent work of Nightflyer, we know that the following six shipments of PLS spud went out, this past quarter:

	1		Berge Jungfrau		37,683
1	2		Autumn Sea		35,200
2	3		African Jay		37,705
3	4		Darya Rapti		40,058
4	5		Pan Kristine		33,303
5	6		Ipanema Beach		37,503
6
7			Total mt		221,452

Even at an average price of U$3,000 per mt (and even though prices are closer to $2,800, today, on average, they were well above $3,000, over the entirety of the quarter), that means that we should anticipate revenues for Q1 of approximately $664.4M, or approximately A$1.06B (based on today's FOREX rate of A$1.59 per U$1.00).

Transitioning to AUD, with our full costs at $1,091/dmt (including royalties and EVERYTHING; FOB cost at $613/dmt), we're looking at a full cost of $241.6M, for a profit of $818.4M, or approximately $0.26 per share for Q1. Please note that in addition to a relatively conservative estimate of average spud price for the quarter, I have also completely disregarded any revenues from Tantulum, so I'm guessing that actual EPS will be more like $0.27 or $0.28.

I firmly believe that once our quarterly earnings are announced, we should see a bump-up in SP. Our quarterly report might only have a temporary impact on the "recent events" that have caused our SP to drop as much as it has, but it should have SOME impact, and prove to everyone that even with the recently reduced spud prices, PLS is very profitable. That, in turn, indicates that once the spud prices bottom and it moves back upwards, profitability will only increase.

On top of that, we know that P680 will be winding-up, soon, with spud production increasing by another 100,000 mt per annum, AND the POSCO JV should start generating revenues, soon.

Moving forward, we have roughly $3B in the bank, and are awaiting the new capital management plan. I've stated in other posts that the average of 17 analysts that cover PLS indicate that they anticipate EPS for FY 2024 of $0.52. Our current dividend policy is to pay-out 20%-30% of FCF (which is not exactly EPS, but is usually close), so assuming a 25% payout rate, we should be looking at FY2024 dividends of $0.13, and I would like to see PLS cough-up the approximately $300M, and pay a special dividend of approximately $0.12, to keep the 2024 payout even with the 2023 payout.

Even if taxes, et al, take another $1B from our accounts, that means that we would have approximately $1.7B, plus any Q1 earnings (approximately $423M), or well North of $2B, to initiate a share buyback, invest in CAPEX, or just leave in the bank for a later date.

Assuming our analysts are even remotely accurate (I think they've underestinated by quite a little bit, especially after seeing Q1 deliveries), a 10 PE on EPS of $0.52 would yield a SP of $5.20. With P680 completed, P1000 in the works, and our 18% portion of the POSCO JV beginning to produce income, I feel that we are worth more than that, but that's just my humble opinion.

As an FYI, I am not a wealthy man, and own 18 other stocks (PLS is tied for my largest holding, at almost 10% of all equity holdings), but in the last month, I have increased my PILBF (that's PLS, here in the States) holdings from 3,000 shares to 11,000 shares.

I'm not a financial advisor, DYOR, good luck to all, and have a nice day (especially you, Taurisk).