Great that Hartleys have finally given such a positive outlook for Guinea Bissau in their report. I've been posting all year that GB could be the dark horse in this race & it has been flying under the radar. Maybe the positive spin Harleys report has now put on Guinea Bissau highlighting Sinapa as a 240 mill boe discovery surrounded by other 200 million targets may at last bring some renewed interest in the SP.
IMO the main differences between 2009 & 2010 are:
2009: IT WAS Shell or BUST with a definite lease deadline of 23rd Nov 09 - unfortunately we busted with the very real chance of losing the Senegal licences. ME did a great job & negotiated a lease extension which for which we should not forget & give him credit. FARs SP would have been a real mess if he had not achieved this & given us a 2nd bite at the cherry.
2010: With POO at $75/$80 p/b level we still have time & good chance of signing a JV on the terms ME is chasing prior to the end of the current lease. This time around though we have a definite option to extend the lease further with a $5 mill deposit. FAR has over $10 mill cash in hand & still has another $3 mill (approx) instalment payment from the China sale to come in shortly which will easily soak this amount up if required. FAR would also have the opportunity to further negotiate & recover this $5 mil deposit from a JV deal signed after the deposit payment if competition permits. BEST of all though, THIS YEAR we have a definite back up plan in GUINEA BISSAU.
This allows me to sleep extremely comfortable while we wait.
PDYOR
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