Thought I would let the dust settle and let others have their say first. I got this wrong and happy to admit it as I saw a farm-in as the way to go. Obviously Good Oil was correct in that the farm-in terms were probably very ordinary for JPR.
As for "sympathy to holders", I think that's a bit premature with all due respect. The game is just beginning now funding is solved. Shareholders have the opportunity of a very nice top up at 2.7c which will bring the average down to 4.2c for me. I'm very comfortable with that considering the pain since the 6.5c placement and the JPROA expiry. At 4.2c, I am confident I will make very good money here.
We now have a lower upside target because of the 1.46Bn shares on issue after the recap but less risk.
It all comes down to the fundamentals of the block which I have said all along. They have 154M+ barrels of oil under Block 31 (before the recent upgrade) of which they estimate they will recover 80M barrels.
I now see JPR as a future $300M+ market cap company once they have four wells producing and a good portion of that 80M barrels converted to 1P reserves, based on peer comparisons. The Block has been de-risked to an extent and now funding is sorted for J51 and J52. J52 will determine the upside here as it will either prove or disprove the 80M barrels to a large extent by targetting the Jurassic as well as Triassic.
I was surprised at the generous 2.7c price but in the end, like GO has said all along, JPR were caught between a rock and a hard place.....like most junior oil companies with little cash but good prospects.
What cost to existing shareholders does the production of oil come at? This is a short term painful one although to be honest, the price held up well so far. I think because of who came on board.
So, my long term target becomes 300M/1460M or 20c per share. Still terrific risk/reward situation IMO.
Happy to stay in JPR knowing that the biggest risk is in J52 in 2011.
Sentiment changed to buy from short term buy.
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1 | 35883 | 0.027 |
1 | 200000 | 0.017 |
3 | 64889 | 0.016 |
1 | 10000 | 0.010 |
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0.032 | 158698 | 1 |
0.034 | 50000 | 1 |
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