Good News & Bad News, page-34259

I am not the smartest investors - but lets use some common sense.

If Li prices is dropping what does that mean:

Somewhere in the demand chain - the demand is not exceeding supply - simple right

Lets look at demand on the macro level:
US - some demand - but most demand will be in 2025 to 2027 when major EVs and battery factories start full production
Europe - again same as US - demand low for now - as both are behind jhina.
Jhina - some investors are using byd/li /neo (in general ev production in jhina) sale as a gauge of demand for Li.
But if EV sale goes up - But price still going down that can ONLY mean Supply exceed demand - not enough demand to reduce the already supply of Li available on the market.

Jhina has a debt crisis - and emperor Xi has cut rate and TRIED to stimulate the economy.
But its has failed. This is where some lack to estimate scenario guess work -

What if the property debt crisis is affecting 10m poeple in jhina will that dampen the economy - NO .
What if 100m people in jhina was affected by the debt crisis - Yes ( their wealth is now 30% to 60% reduce as their property have reduce - but they still need to repay their debt). For example they buy house for $1m (keep it simple)- but now their house value is $0.5m - but they still have to paid $1m mortgage. Also alot of the wages have also halved. HOW can they survive let alone buy and EV and travel.
So those 100m people in jhina could have purchase new EV but now have to repay their big mortgages and their wealth have reduced by half and their income have also halved. The people who are employed by the communist party will always have a job - but that not enough to give jhina that 8% to9% growth that we saw in the past. NOw jhina growth will be like 4%.

So EV sale may increase from last year but not exceed the supply of Li in the market now. i can only assume the stimulus in jhina is not working as too many people are still in the debt crisis and their is an oversupply of Li.

We dont know the real number cos jhina does not provide them - so need to have educated guess.
To fix the problem in jhina will take a long time. If it can be fix faster.... better.
But its like stiring a big ship - it takes a long time to turn things around.