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Delta Lithium General Discussion, page-1695

  1. TheArchitect
    6,732 Posts.
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    07/10/23
    01:13
    Post #: 70220159
    https://www.theautopian.com/the-world-might-need-almost-6-million-tons-of-lithium-by-2030-and-its-not-clear-we-can-mine-it-fast-enough-report/


    The World Might Need Almost 6 Million Tons Of Lithium By 2030 And It’s Not Clear We Can Mine It Fast Enough: Report

    9:53 am
    Morning Dump Faraday Future

    The big concern over electric cars has been demand, but the greatest threat could be upstream supplies (i.e. the stuff that is required to make the cars). There are some interesting data points out this that point to both a decrease in the price of lithium to near record lows in the short-term and a possible supply crunch in the long-term.


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    Lithium Is Cheap Again, Though Maybe Not Forever

    Screen Shot 2023 09 08 At 9.41.03 Am

    The main competing battery chemistries for electric car applications are, currently, NCM (lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide) and LFP (lithium iron phosphate, also known as LiFeP04). Both of these battery chemistries are lithium ion batteries, but one (NCM) uses a lot of rare earth materials. They each have their advantages and disadvantages, but both require a lot of lithium to build. For example, a Tesla Model S battery

    As more and more lithium mining capacity has come online over the last decade, lithium prices predictably began to fall, at least until 2022, when it suddenly shot back up due to supply constraints. Reuters reported that Chinese battery makers made . Well, guess what, according to influential industry analysis firm , prices are down below the pivotal $100/kWh mark, or about 33% off since March of last year. This isn’t a halving of peak costs (which would see prices at about $70 per kWh), but it’s an improvement.

    This is good news for electric car prices long-term if the trend continues. What’s the bad news? Here’s some :

    + Benchmark Base Case: 3.1m tonnes

    + Benchmark High Case: 5.3m tonnes

    + Benchmark Lithium Supply Constrained Case: 2.5m tonnes

    In good ol’ American tons, that’s about 5.8 million tons of lithium necessary on the high end. How much was mined globally outside the United States (there’s only one current commercial-scale operation in the U.S. and they don’t release the data because it’s just one company)? About 130,000 tons . While this was about a quarter higher than 2021, you can see the potential issue.

    On the lower end of this estimate, it’s assumed that the world will need a little over 3.4 million tons. The supply constrained case, i.e. the amount we might be stuck with because we can’t make anymore, is about 2.8 million tons. Should we believe Benchmark? It’s sometimes difficult to judge these massive global intelligence firms, but the company is often cited by journalists and lawmakers.

    As the company’s CEO Simon Moore points out:

    You can’t have your high and base cases without getting lithium out of the ground quick enough. At some point that has to happen quicker than the battery capacity and gigafactory build out. It is not yet. Then you have the challenge of both quality and quantity of lithium – you can’t use all lithium in an EV battery. The great raw material disconnect is coming and with a bigger cliff edge than before.

    This is yet another challenge for legislators wanting to switch to EVs only. Unless automakers can drastically reduce the amount of lithium used per vehicle, that shortfall could mean millions of electric cars that can’t be produced.


    The Commercial Fleet Business Is Back, Baby

    Fedex Brightdrop Zevo 600Photo credit: FedEx


    With the automotive semiconductor shortage came a fairly predictable decline in fleet sales . While the market hasn’t entirely caught up, there’s been a year-over-year increase of 22% in fleet sales for the first six months of 2023 according to . Here’s some more data:

    The lease/rental industry is the fastest-growing vocation in 2023 after being the toughest hit by the pandemic. Fleets like Penske, U-Haul, and Enterprise saw 40-60% decreases in new registrations during the pandemic, but are having their largest year since 2019.Last-mile delivery was one of the only vocations to seen new registration increases during the pandemic and continues to shine with companies like Amazon tripling new registrations from 2019.Class 5 showed the only decrease in registrations. Cab-chassis and incomplete pickups had the most inventory during the pandemic – resulting in a flattening of the curve in 2023.

    EV registrations were also up, with companies like Ford, BrightDrop, and Rivian delivering more electric vans.


    The Big Question

    Here’s a question that’s going to be difficult to answer, what do we run out of first:

    Lithium carbonateThe gigafactories needed to turn that lithium carbonate into battery packsCustomers who want those electric vehicles

    Photos: FedEx, Faraday Future, Benchmark Minerals, Kevin Williams

    DLI Price at posting: 66.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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