Ann: Mukuyu-2 Drilling Update, page-144

RECO was trading at roughly its current SP $1.14 CAD in late 2021 before they announced a discovery. They topped out at $12 CAD or 10.5 x their pre discovery price.

10 x IVZ current SP would put us at $1.65 AUD or about $2B MC. Pre flow test this would be an extraordinary result.

Looking at MAY who recently drilled in Cuba, they hit a MC of around $700M after announcing a discovery. That since drifted back to around IVZ current MC. That indicates 3.5 x on discovery which would be around $0.60 for IVZ.

Markets are risk off at the moment with very little money in the spec space, not great for IVZ. On the other hand oil and gas prices are rising and may lead to some euphoria on a discovery.

Assuming a 0.5 multiplier on the above due to current market conditions I predict the SP on discovery could hit anywhere between $0.30 and $0.85 with and outside chance of peaking momentarily above $1.20.

SP will likely drop off the peak quite hard as the company works out next steps, releases seismic results and potentially upgrades resource estimates.

A CR prior to flow testing is expected and would be for testing M2 and partial funding of next drill campaign. I’m not convinced a farm in is likely at favourable terms until a multi well campaign is complete and reserves can be booked.

So CR late 2023 or early 2024, maybe 2 more wells in 2024 and hopefully a farm in which pushes us over $2 by the end of 2024.

Complete crystal ball gazing and all IMO so do your own research and form your own opinions. I’d be interested to hear other people’s thoughts on valuations bearing in mind it’s a mugs game.