Anybody have any thoughts on where the oil price is headed from here - obviously if the Israeli conflict widens to include Iran one can assume that it is headed higher, but if things are contained within Israel and Gaza are we close to the top of the range.
The all time high for Brent Crude was back in July 2008 at just above USD $140. At the time the Australian Dollar was close to parity with the USD meaning that a barrel of oil priced in AUD was also $140.
Fast forward to today and the Brent Crude price is around USD $90. With a USD/AUD exchange rate of around 0.63 this means a barrel of oil in AUD terms is back to just over AUD $140.
As the latest price spike in oil has proven, where the oil price goes so goes inflation.
So if the oil price rises much higher from here can we expect an increase in inflation that will force Central Banks to increase rates to induce a slowdown and perhaps a recession?
On the other side, if yields in the US collapse due to the tightening that has already occurred and the USD collapses from it's recent strong run then in USD terms will the oil price head higher?
Woodside, page-60
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