reserves, page-16

nazzy, sharechaos, just going back to the first 2 posts on this thread.

guys, not sure if my figures add up, not very good at valuations, will probably repeat a few of your figures.

AUT have 275350342 shares
RFE have 139535000 shares

AUT have 97.3% more shares on the market than RFE

AUT has a market capitalization of $308 million
RFE has a market capitalisation of $80 million

AUTs mar cap is 285% higher than RFE.

but how does this equate
using reserve figures released today
AUT 2010 reserves and NPV(10)

1P US$ 70.2Million
2P US$ 190Million
3P US$ 986.2Million

RFE used last years 2009 reserve update and PV(10)in there last singapore presentation... (note that values in AUS$)

1p = AUS$ 87.6 Million
2p = AUS$ 280.6 Million
3p = AUS$ 468 Million

i would roughly decrease those values by 11% to get to US$ figures so using the 3P valuation from 1/9/09 against AUT lastest 3P announcement, this would roughly bring our 3P reserves to $416.52US million compared to $986.2USmillion so AUTs 3P reserves are 136.77% higher.

Have brokers put these 2 shares side by side and done evaluations, i dont think they have.

lets not forget we are using reserve figures from 1 year ago, we have increased our land holdings at East Oklahoma by 120% which havnt been factored in yet, drilling at West Tulsa has doubled in the past 12 months as has EOK Central, plus the 3 wells at EOK North

using old figures for RFE and putting these %s together, AUT have 97.3% more shares with a mar cap of 285% higher but only have 136.77% higher 3p reserves and RFE have increased there overall land holdings by 120%

if you divide AUTs mar cap by 3p reserves you get a figure of .312, for RFE to have the equivalent figure of .312 RFE current share price on LAST years reserve figures should be $0.93
if you divide AUTs shares by 3p reserves you get a figure of .279, for RFE to have the equivalent figure of .279 RFE current share price should be $0.83

now these figures havnt factored in 2 major points, AUT have only just released their reserve upgrade today,so from what i have been reading there is still plenty of blue sky ahead, this would further skew the RFE figures out to over $1.

then of course we are using old figures. RFEs greatest feat this year should be the size of the reserve upgrade.
going on the Singapore investor Presentation, RFE could be priced around $4.55

what does this all mean, being conservative and HOPING for a reserve upgrade of 100% then RFE should/could be priced over $2

just need some brokers to put this together and interest should come, perhaps we are flying under the radar and it will take the reserve upgrade to come out before investors start doing comparisons.

GO RFE