Highlights: -Prolupin deal is a "game-changer" to commercialise Buntine as fast as possible -Production early 2024 in Germany, acquisition has accelerated production by a year -Asset would cost over $20m to manufacture -If asset is fully utilised WOA can triple turnover (assume this means 3x FY23 revenue of $11.5m = $34.5m+) with high EBITDA margins -400t of pipeline committed -Potential pricing is much better than expected. More than previous guidance. Will depend on high volume contracts but currently sitting somewhere between previous guidance ($9-13k/t?)and what Prolupin were selling for ($25-33k/t). Jay: "we're talking about $400/t in [lupin feedstock] and $20,000 out [potential sale price]". Wow. -Australian plans: German plant is game-changer to convert expressions of interest. Capacity north of 5X what can be produced at Prolupin -Near term catalysts: updates on European sales pipeline, announcing more customers in Australia as they come on, "strategic options for DCF that are positive for company" (sale?) -No mention at all of oat milk (WOAT milk?)
Jay was very positive. This was the usual softball style marketing interview obviously. The question I would have liked to ask is: If Prolupin didn't make it work (they went bust), what is WOA doing differently? Assume it's better technology with the WOA IP and what's been learnt in R&D, but would like to hear a bit more about this from Jay. I'm sure a more competitive price also helps.
Ok so fast forward a few years, 5,000tpa at margins of say $10,000/t = $50m EBITDA or $60m at $12k/t margin. Double the current market cap of ~$30m.
