I have more exposure to Imugene now than ever, an
d I am as confident as I have ever been. Why? Because just about everything here is going as expected. But let's elaborate a little.
Firstly, you shouldn't take anything I have to say as any more than another post from another unknown face sitting behind a keyboard. I have a heart beside my name, so this should immediately ring alarm bells. Remember who the popular kids were at school? How did they turn out, generally speaking? Hearts here at Hot Copper are awarded to folks who have the most "followers" - no other reason. They aren't manually assigned, they aren't given to people with accurate or informative posts, just mechanically provided to those who for one reason or another people want to read from and so click follow. Some have them for eloquent writing, others for humour. The reason I have one is because primarily of my technical analysis on Imugene.
The form of analysis I prefer is highly probable and forward looking. The accuracy of said analysis is there for all to see. While I am sound with the technical analysis, I have always placed fundamental analysis as more important. Long term TA is simply looking at fundamentals, or more accurately what the sentiment is toward perceived fundamentals.
Quite sometime ago, there was a raging technical debate about the most significant level on the chart - a long term (read: fundamental/sentiment) 61.8% fib level at 0.245. We had some positive fundamental news at the time and it appeared we were going to bounce off the level. PilbaraBoy was quite vocal at the time and was mouthing off for me saying that unless that specific 0.245 level held up in the following week or two, then things were not going to go well. Fast forward a year, and the price continues to languish, as expected. And as for PilbaraBoy, he's largely been silent, to the relief of many. This minor example however, highlights the point. While I am sure PilbaraBoy remains confident with his investment and will stand to make a motza, the share price has taken the wind out of his emotional sails so to speak. I do hope he is well.
One only need to open up any thread to see how far the Imugene sentiment has fallen. Emotions are running high, long term bulls are doing nothing but complaining. Fanatical fan boys are telling everyone that they want the chairs head and are even suggesting they can do better. Posters known for their logic in times past are questioning their investment decision. In the absence of any new information some simply regurgitate the same old stuff. And the best analysts of the fundamental picture remain silent (folks like
@davybabyk and
@The_Captain ), likely because there is not much to analyse atm, but also likely because they can't stand all the drivel and ridiculousness of the forum in recent times. I look forward to reading their posts when we get some new news. But it still |remains, emotions are high and people are in panic, which brings me back to why I am so confident.
Courtesy of BlackRock:
I suspect that many of those who bought high and are now very well underwater bought in due to being thrilled and euphoric. A costly lesson for emotional investing. I suspect that is the reason why others went hard on D's. As happy as I am with the size of my holding, I have never touched the D's or participated in the previous CR. I went hard on B's and C's and now have E's. Another costly lesson will be to anyone who has been selling, or will sell here. Worried and panic stricken sellers will ultimately hurt in future when they see what comes next. But this is nothing new, ever since beans were traded for bricks, this pattern remains. Everything is going as expected.
When worry and panic come, investors search for reasons and want someone to blame. Human nature won't allow them to put themselves in the hot seat, they need someone else. This is really the theme of the threads now, people not capable enough to put emotions aside and look at events from a logical perspective. If they were able to view things logically, they would note some important things.
- Firstly, they would be able to see the correlation in the above two images and see where we are sitting.
- They would know that no matter what the share price is at this point in time, it only becomes a loss when they sell.
- They will not have time to catch the rerate if if they are sitting on the sidelines and a offer comes
- The only truly negative issue at present is the share price. Any other perceived negative is a time issue. Not having trial data YET. Not having a deal for hervaxx YET. Not having a rerate YET. There is zero fundamental negative news, just jumping at shadows.
Some other things to consider:
Don't get sucked into thinking that November is going to be fireworks because of a few posters. While we all hope for great data at the conference, disappointment will be high when it does not eventuate. There is only speculation and opinions that Novembers conferences will be big. What we know for a fact however, is that the FDA will not allow YF to release any data until they are ready. We also know for a fact that both YF and the company want nothing more than to shout it from the rooftops. Unfortunately, we will only hear updates as soon as they are able to give them, not when we want them.
Arm chair board members are an embarrassment to themselves. Suggestions of "If I was LC" or "If I was chairman" or "a license should be done already for xxx" is quite pathetic. Not one person here has a clue as to what discussions have been had regarding commercial options, what data BP want to see, discussions with FDA or anything else. Did you know that some deals in the biotech sector have taken more than 2years to nut out all the details. It's not a simple matter of signing a contract after a month's due diligence.
People bagging on the board for only buying $xxx amount of shares. Obviously they have never spent any time with that class of people. Those are comments out of ignorance. There is only one reason why anyone ever wants to buy shares in a company. Because they expect to sell them at a higher price. No-one ever, especially those educated enough to run a company, buy because they expect things to be stagnant or drop.
Suggesting that all the selling is actually retail, or suggesting it is a large position being exited. Imagine for a moment that for the next week, you were the only individual to buy or sell with a clear order book. With a second brokerage account in your name, you could literally make the price whatever you want. Would you raise the price or lower the price? Let's assume you want the price higher, so you put your sells in at 10c, 20c, 50c, 80c, $1. Let's say you use my broker and can buy and sell 1 share at a time, so you sell 1 share at each of those levels. Your other account buys them. Guess what, now IMU is priced at $1 per share. What though, if you wanted to buy as many as you possibly could next week? Would you not use the same tactic to lower the price? Maybe you might try and get it from 10 to 4c. Or 4c to 3c. Trading resumes and so you buy up. This is a basic illustration of how big players with deep pockets can manipulate the price lower. If these big players are confident in a huge pay day, what lengths would they go to, to manipulate the price as low as possible to buy. Maybe the run down costs them a couple of hundred thousand dollars, maybe a couple of million but probably much less by using algo bots and shorting That's a small price to pay for having an extra hundred million shares in the future at $1 per share, is it not? Retail traders are exhausted, they are either only buying in small amounts having already used their money, holding tight or sold out long ago. The volume is not retail. And it hasn't been for years. The price has been manipulated down from the low 40s. I have posted analytics on this in the past. Why? Think about it logically, not emotionally.
This post is stupid long, I probably wouldn't read it myself, like all long posts, and I'm not going back to proof read - sorry about that. At the end of the day though, if it helps someone to hold on a bit longer until pay day then I'll be happy with that. If you bought in high, then holding on won't cost you anything else. You've already just about maxxed out your paper loss. In the big picture, at least from logics view, the only way is up.
(20min delay)
