"I would have thought would be much, much higher than $700Mn - $1BN?"
Concur.
Based on my "back-of-the-cigarette-pack" calculus, I envisage through-the-cycle EBIT of around US$1.5bn for the acquired assets (using US$190/t to US$200/t realised prices which, given the under-investment in coal capacity globally are not pricing assumptions at all outside of the realms of likelihood):
![]()
For what it's worth, price realisations derived from prevailing spot prices suggest an EBIT somewhere around US$2.2bn.
I strongly suspect the payback period will be short of 5 years.
Probably 4 years.
And possibly 3 years, even.
.
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