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baldwidx

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19/10/23

20:22

Post #: 70436071
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Originally posted by reggie78: ↑

Its anyone guess really mate.

We know what the share price should be today, $20 broker coverage consistent around this figure, but share price is not there yet.

However we have just launched our product to market in US, 1 quarter small royalty payment, 2nd to come shortly, no forecast sales really beyond next quarter so hard for market to apply full value yet.

What I do think, one would be foolish to think $11.34 or even our high of $15 range is it or the end of the road for Neu's share price based on Daybue sales, we had initial estimate 'peak sales' in US of $500m this looks to be hit as early as some saying FY24 some FY 25, we don't know yet but its earlier than all expected initially and in fact 'peak sales' are more likely double like $1bn in US alone then there is far more upside to come.

Neu could be earning $100-$150m p.a for US deal and coupe years adding another $100m form ROW, future revenue growth here is not in the share price today, a company earning $150m -$250m revenue p.a would likely warrant market cap $5bn-$10bn

December 2024 will paint a better picture forsure for Daybue and I would like to say we still will be here to see the value rightfully added to share price.

I don't think Jon and his management team when contemplating a future TO price for the company simply use the share price of the day as a measuring stick of the future sale price. I have faith that they know their figure which would put the business up forsale. I think the likes of RETA recently is a rough guide of what the industry values assets.

Assuming 2591 comes up with success x 4, Daybue sales continue and 'peak sales' are heading to US $1bn, then I think a conservative TO $5bn US , I think Acadia will be the suitor, they have approx $1-2bn US in sales milestones and royalties attached to Daybue, so essentially they are only paying $3bn US and they will own everything 100%, so cheap for them and bolt on a full pipeline with a lot of value to come.

I struggle to see how Neu management would let it all go or less than $5bn US.

$5bn US is $7.9bn AUD today which is approx $62 p/sh

I think this factors in value based Daybue commercial asset for $30-40 p/sh and then $20+ for 2591 and fragile X.

Still cheap and would prefer $10bnUS or they license out 2591but not sure either will be achieved, happy to be proven wrong.

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Thanks Reggies - very much appreciated mate!

I tend to agree about Jon and Management. I took quite a bit from the info that Hottod posted recently about the sale of Reata I think and the back and forth with management and their advisors - it showed that good management knows the true value of their business and won't let it go for less than that, notwithstanding offers on the table.

I hope you are right on the down side for $60 and hope we get much closer to Wilsons de-risked value of $100. Unlikely before any TO but one can dream.

NEU Price at posting: $11.49 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $16.33		Change -0.240(1.45%)		Mkt cap ! $2.087B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$16.49	$16.62	$15.60	$11.97M	733.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	403	$16.31

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$16.42	1763	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	403	16.310
1	4130	16.240
2	1375	16.220
2	1763	16.200
1	1763	16.160

Price($)	Vol.	No.
16.420	1763	1
16.470	1763	1
16.500	100	1
16.510	1763	1
16.550	1763	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 11/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

NEU (ASX) Chart

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