This is how I see the merger best working
instead of any talk about blending ore bodies or bringing them together, recognising that TMT have the lower cap ex, lower opex, and importantly further advanced with both EPAs and construction planning, it makes more sense to press on with TMT’s path.
The AVL deposit can have a DFS/BFS done in due course, and the merged company can still progress the EPAs over there, and the deposit can be used at times in the price cycle when the vanadium price is extremely high. FMG are a great example of this, they mine 60-62% Fe deposits when times are bad, and when the price is high they reallocate resources to their low grade (58%) deposits,as they’re profitable at higher prices, and preserved the lower opex material for the bottom of the price cycle (i.e. no need to lay people off or go into care and maintenance when times are tough.
There is no reason we can’t do the same here and the sites are so close that the difference is only 20-30mins in a mini bus at the start/end of a shift, whether they mine the TMT or AVL stuff.
The different AVL processing plant can be paid for with profits from highs in the vanadium market ($12/lb +). One of the biggest problems for successful miners is where to deploy their cash (hence why so many either acquire, pay big juicy dividends, or undertake share buybacks). We have an easy way to invest ~600m down the line to get a good return on the AVL deposit in times when the V price is healthy.
AVL’s strengths in the downstream side can be realised by progressing the TMT side of the fence to production quicker. The company name change won’t hold up or EPAs too much with all else being equal (yes it does have to go for review again) but it’s worth it if the combined entity can get better access to funding.
Timeline would look something like:
TMT first production 2026, we know Yarrabubba has a mine life of about seven years so it would make sense to bring AVL’s deposit in after that so we only ever have 2 deposits at the one time, so AVL deposit first production in 2034, when vanadium demand is projected to be double what it is today.
Troydt had previously worked out gross profits a year of 250m ($12/lb), so the 7 year period gives ample time to pay off the original TMT processing plant debt and invest in the AVL side. It could also just be fresh debt when interest rates eventually lower again.
Now let’s hope for a revised offer from AVL to get this combined entity pressing forwards
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