I agree with a lot of that. And I like your analogy:
It's like there's a sky full of red while there's a volcano exploding nearby and consulting a clock first to determine if there's something going on before looking to the volcano. These events are far more influential than a no-news period on such a company.
Perhaps you'd agree that it cuts both ways - here are three volcanos that still managed to surprise a lot of people. If you stuck to a widely accepted sell signal to do so when price broke below that 30week ema you'd have negated a lot of stress over the past few 10 weeks and maybe come back and doubled your position from that initial investment. Just an idea that a trend following approach gives.
I really don't want to come across as trying to say one approach is better than the other - we're all individuals and see things differently etc, and I've made my feelings apparent elsewhere around peoples reactions to ideas that go contrary to their own.
I agree with a lot of the fundamental analysis that people put the time into explaining and really appreciate the effort. It's not an easy pursuit this game and there's a lot on the line - I hope that everyone realizes success from the risks they take.
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