Mayi, Spec and Captain B - first of all nice analysis. Thank you.
I however feel as though some may have over complicated the information in the report. My thoughts are - we are told revenue was $43M YTD as at 20 October 2023. We are also told that a substantial portion of the $33M order was delivered. Therefore that amount would be reflected in $43M revenue number. We are not however told the exact amount.
We are also told there is a contracted backlog of $51M. IMO it makes no sense for this number not to be at any date but 20 October 2023 as well. The contracted backlog and revenue numbers are linked. Once a contracted backlog item is delivered, it is converted into revenue (i.e. they do not wait for the cash to be received). Now unlike in the Q1 report - this report does not state that the contracted backlog will be completed by the end of the year.
Therefore if we accept Oleg's guidance that revenue will be at about $65M. Assuming FIFO - it tells me that $22M of the contracted backlog will be delivered by 31 December 2023 and will convert to revenue ($43M + $22M = $65M). A significant portion of that $22M will include the remaining amounts of the $33M order. The rest will be made from smaller $M orders. This will leave $29M in contracted backlog carrying across to 2024 (assuming no further sales). We are therefore well on the way for 2024 right?
In my view it becomes very simple when focusing only on the revenue and contracted backlog (as opposed to trying to also link the cash receipts as well).
Just my thoughts, very happy with the results.
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