GLN 4.17% 17.3¢ galan lithium limited

General Discussion Banter GLN, page-13369

  1. 375 Posts.
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    It's going down because the entire sector has been in decline since April 2022. I have shown this previously but you can also see it here in this Lithium Developers Index:
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5678/5678936-8219cbc4b6b53b6cd24a7f2b1e65a55b.jpg
    The developers include: A11 AGY ASN AZL CXO EMH ESS EUR GL1 GLN INF INR JRL LKE LLL LPD LPI LTR PLL SYA VUL. I have removed ESS and LTR from the date that their takeover offers were made public, as these offers override the prevailing sentiment in the price action. I could also remove LPI since it is now trading under offer - I just haven't gotten around to doing this yet.

    You can see in the chart above that GLN follows the developer index pretty closely. It also looks like Galan may have bottomed whereas the developer index might still be dropping further. Though, it might be difficult for Galan to start moving up without the rest of the sector so we are really waiting for the sector to bottom out (I think it's close - we just need lithium price to stabilise and start moving up again to prove the oversupply narrative is incorrect) or some stock specific news/progress that might cause a rerate (e.g. offtakes). You can also see that Galan is currently sitting above "the average developer" in terms of bags (price increase) since the start of the index, so it's relative performance since the ATHs is not as bad as you might expect (when you focus on the Galan chart in isolation).

    The next chart compares Galan to a Hard Rock Developer Lithium Index. The difference between the solid line and the dotted line is that the dotted line includes ESS and LTR after the public offers were made. Obviously including the price action after the offers were made public, drags the index up. Though, now the LTR offer has disappeared the dotted line is coming back down to earth. You can see that since August 2022 Hard Rock Developers have enjoyed a premium (represented by the area between the green and brown lines), the reverse was true on the way up, but that premium seems to have eroded a little over the past few weeks. This might be due to the M&A activity surrounding LPI which has proven the value of brine operations - even in a non-competitive situation. It might also be because of the challenges that hard rock operations have been experiencing, most of which were not previously reflected (discounted) in the share price.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5678/5678513-58b3cf3e3b39fae5e814fa36db2b2037.jpg
    The hard rock developers include: A11 CXO EMH ESS EUR GL1 GT1 INF LLL LPD LTR PLL SYA.

    The purpose of these charts is to show how closely the participants in a sector follow each other. I have not included explorers who are expanding resources as they are in a different category and have been moving positively over this period (those that have been successful) due to the fact that they are in the speculation and discovery phases of the Lassonde curve.

    I do believe that Galan is significantly undervalued relative to its peers (as has been well articulated above by @spovend) and a good portion of this is within managements control. However, I also believe that the direction and trend of Galan (the day to day pricing) is largely dictated by the sentiment of the broader market (at a sector & sub-sector level).
 
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Last
17.3¢
Change
-0.008(4.17%)
Mkt cap ! $82.94M
Open High Low Value Volume
17.5¢ 18.0¢ 17.0¢ $257.3K 1.476M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
22 817200 17.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
17.5¢ 334150 16
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Last trade - 14.29pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
GLN (ASX) Chart
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