A couple of points from posts:
1) SQM Buying - SQM cannot buy on-market unless the Scheme fails and their off-market becomes unconditional. Technically, they don't have to wait for FIRB and they could waive that condition, but if they don't get FIRB, they have to sell the shares.
2) Gina Buying above 19.9% - Gina cannot buy above 19.9% unless she makes an on-market takeover offer (whcih is has to be unconditional except for limited matters specified under Corporations Act) or an off-market takeover which becomes unconditional and has been posted out (announcement of it isn't enough, it becomes live once despatched). I don't think news of Gina's substantial shareholder notice will happen until after market on Monday. You have 2 business days after the day you reach it. That notice would include yesterday's, today's and Monday's buying. All the buying yesterday is not Gina - a lot of hedge funds will be looking at this thinking there is some good optionality.
3) FIRB approval - I can't see this being an issue. There are multiple lithium deposits in Australia and nothing makes this overly strategic. SQM has previously got FIRB approval, and I can't see anything to indicate there are issues with SQM. Also, the offtake is likely to be processed at the SQM/Wesfarmers hydroxide plant located in Australia. At worst, that is a condition of FIRB approval.
4) $3.50 option - As I've said, very little probability this option falls away before February. Yes, there is a break fee but your also forgetting that you cannot make a bid on the ASX and then decide to walk away. The Takeover Panel and ASIC will make you follow through. SQM also doesn't want to impact on its reputation for future dealings in Australia.
5) After Feb - very likely risk the price falls below $3.50 if SQM pulls its bid. After this, the Company trades closer to underlying value but I as said earlier, it likely loses a "takeover premium" by the stale mate and uncertainty. If you're a believer, results will deliver and show true value over time. I think then at Feasibility Study, there is ultimately a consolidation (or restructured JV).
I'm holding out to see how it plays out (higher bid by SQM or others) and how upcoming assays fall. I think optionality is worth the time value of money, and as I've said, I see little risk of the $3.50 option falling away anytime soon.
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