For me, I want to see FCF $5mill+ for 4Q23 ... CE1 haven't had any issue with turnover ..it's making a clear profit from operations(And maybe a suitor sees an opportunity here??) ... if it wasn't for the Montney sale the FCF for SEPT Qty was $800k.. good reason for this of course was the Capex $4.1mill for the Pisces wells ..(6.5Mill to come 4Q23 which will cover balance of wells+pipeline+abandonment+workover)
Production should be good from here till JAN when the drop-off when the next set of wells will need to be drilled to maintain 4000boe/d+ ... using the numbers on a successive Pisces well over 10 months a well will average around 180Boe/d...so one can see the commercial life is limited at the higher production levels trends downwards and flatline at lower levels for sometime..
As I've stated before not a fan of the hedging .. straight off it cost CE1 $280k in option fees ...then and another $500k in hedge losses for the Qty ... so just there is another $780k wasted on trying to play the hedge game .. IMHO if you don't need to have the hedging for lending then take the risk you might see O&G tank and not make much profit ..but least if Oil is above your costs then make the most of it ... how many millions have been blown on hedging?? I see forecast another 200k predicted loss from hedging and guessing another $280k in option fees ?? what a waste
I always like to look over the notes to the financial forecast >>to fill in the blanks >>
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