you need to account for the fact that not all their sales are newc price linked. 14% is met which will trade above the newc usd price, but around 30-40% of production is benchmarked to API5 which as per the sep23 quarterly was 88usd/t. This has come down I assume with newc.
Market cap currently 6.25B. EV is 6.25-0.92 net cash = 5.33B. This is likely going to be around 5B by CY end due to price lag from coal and higher production.
going forward, I calculate their run rate as follows:
0.5 * 120usd(NEWC) + 0.35*80usd (API5) + 0.15*160usd (SSCC/PCI) = 112USD which equiv to 177 AUD.
cash cost ex royalty mid point is 97aud/t as per latest quarterly (but if production stays high I think we ,can adjust this down) which gives cash margin ex royalty per tonne of 80aud. Assuming royalty per tonne of $22 (due to lower price, I’m on phone so quick and dirty here). It’s cash margin of 58 aud/t.
run rate next yr should hopefully be 38MT including middlemount equity accounted and capex lets say 650M. It’s a fcf of (58*38) * 0.7 - 600 = ~900m. That’s a fcf yield of about 17/18%.
obviously this number can change a LOT due to coal price assumptions. Eg if met coal and newc go up to 180 and 140 respectively for 2024, then fcf goes up to ~1.4-1.5B which is 30% fcf yield.
Disc holding for the dividends
If any of my numbers or assumptions are off please let me know
YAL Price at posting:
$4.74 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)