Lithium prices, page-856

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ljcamp

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03/11/23

09:28

Post #: 70704773
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Originally posted by Hotspring: ↑

I do not understand market rationale / reaction to current lithium metal price drop - spod. from ATH of US$6,000 to current low of $2,000 ; carbonate/hydroxide from ATH of circa US75,000 to current low of $25,000.
Bear in mind, most of the DFS / business plan, the like of LTR, LLL, PLS including AKE are based on Spod.& Carbonate / Hydroxide long term price of US 1,250 to 1500 and $15,000 per ton respectively, the current knock down price [from manipulations of destocking practices] are still way above (50% more than the assumed price) their making good coin margin.
The market reaction is well overdone AS IF the price is going to falls below their production price - Are this over reaction simply the blind follow the herd mentality (perpetrated by the like of GS and BOA) or just simple poor human behavior.
After all the hype and dust settled, I think the current price should stick around US$2,000 (spod) $ US$25,000(carbonate/hydroxide) for the next couple of years due to strong and increasing EV adoption & grid / home storage demand.
Based the the price, still a very good margin business; easily in excess of 50% for AKE (equivalent to software margin)

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The floor is US$20

Note: At this price no new supply enter the supply chain as it is not incentivizing new capital.

The banks have fleeced billions out of the entire lithium sector in 4 months.

Not advice

AKE Price at posting: $9.18 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
13 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Lithium prices, page-856

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