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Roller62

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06/11/23

11:53

Post #: 70745998
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Originally posted by Scarpa: ↑

That is a really good and interesting question which wouldn't mind if others have a view they may want to share.

My view is as follows:
1. Given where EV production forecasts are heading and where one is in the development queue you would be wanting to enter the market ASAP.
2. Without Manono onstream, I suspect other players will come on market and that will be the catalyst of breaking China's dominance, noting the issue of getting Manono in the now for me for China is price and demand control. Best for everyone AVZ stays in non-Chinese hands, but the further down the track Manono is developed that removes the potential for Manono to influence pricing and demand forecasts if it ends up in Chinese hands ultimately. Just have to look at rare earths to see the politics of that resource, given China's dominance in the rare earth market.
3. If corruption is the winner here, we'll need to ask the question who will fund the infrastructure to get this from minesite to port, and how will 'donators' and 'world bank' view DRC asking for money to develop those systems for a project stolen from an explorer. So it will be up to the Chinese to develop and take the product to market, negotiating with say Tanzania and Angola to get the product to market.
4. At the end of the day, DRC needs development to move towards better life for its citizens - that is the sad part here as corruption is preventing that.

Having said the above, AVZ has a bit to answer for too given the last Ann and the fact shareholders were not informed at the time.

Anyway, my thoughts. Pretty obvious too me other mines, particularly in Australia, will come onstream before AVZ given this debacle has pushed out development timelines.

All IMO

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Scarpa IMO you are forgetting that Manono has become very much involved in politics. This is especially important around this time as elections are happening in December.

Felix is probably reluctant to do anything at this stage in case he upsets his re-election chances.

There are a lot of moving parts and very few would know all the details.

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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