Lets just hope that EMH will see the astronomical rise like AVZ did (without the subsequent delisting/dispute) when it went from $150-200MC to become a $2.8B behemoth it is/was when it last traded. There are some similarities: largest resource in the region, gov involved, co-ownership complexities around project %... but also many differences: sovereign risk is much lower, no foreign JV/Co-ownership, stronger mining jurisdiction, established UG mine and access to all services, international pressure for a fair and equitable process (EU).
However, if we stop hoping and return back to reality: with the understanding of the recessionary pressures on the lithium market - I say even with a positive DFS + Offtakes + FID, this EMH's SP is not going to breakout anytime soon (sadly), there are plenty examples (amongst Li juniors) where positive news have been sold into, including DFS results. Right now is simply not the right sector, nor the right market sentiment, nor the right place in the commodities cycle to support any explosive valuation growth (even supported by really good news). I honestly see us (the LTHs) holding for another 2 years as a minimum to get some decent returns.
I base my last depressing statement based on the: anticipated worsening leading into stagnation of consumer spending, and the weakening growth pace of the electrification, due to the world entering a recession proper. Large unemployment, high interests, slow economy are not attributes of an economic environment where everyone 'rushes out of the door' to buy themselves some EVs. There are now enough people and businesses struggling to service their debt/liabilities without any unnecessary expenses (this hypothesis has been further backed up by the recent Autosector and Li Producers bearish forecasts around sales and capital allocation).
All is not lost though, the geology/resource is not going anywhere, someone will want Cinovec eventually, if not for its lithium then for its tin. Personally I'll continue to hold/DCAing with the horizon to sell around 2028. For now, I'm putting EMH into the bottom drawer, till the start of 2024 and will not track it till then, I'll continue posting/visiting then. All shall be revealed very soon.
Luck to all holders, see you in 2024 (I'm off for a longish 2-3 months holiday in remote wilderness, so that makes my choice much easier than those with internet access).
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