Just wanted to put everything in a perspective here.
Shares on issue at 9 Nov 2023 - approx 615mln with options and other rights say 700mln
Stage 1 production rate about 250kta (recent interview)
Stage 1.5 production rate up to 625kta
Stage 1.5 AISC $160-180
Stage 1.5 investment $17mln
Stage 1.5 financing:
Need for funds is skewed towards later part of 2024.
Best case: free cash plus options $3.5mln plus debt up to $15mln.
Worst case: 25% dilution through equity raising, increasing shares on issue to 850mln.
Market price of phosphate A$530 per tonne, which gives about $350 per tonne margin.
PE ratio 7
Worst case scenario - we bumble along 250kta and make only $100 per tonne margin. Valuation would be (250kta x 100 - 5mln) x 7 / 700mln shares = 14c
Less the worst case - production 500kta, margin $100 per tonne. Valuation (500kta x 100 - 10mln) x 7 / 850mln shares = 33c
Fantastic case - production 625kta, margin $300 per tonne, no dilution. Valuation (625 x 300 -10mln) x 7 / 700 = $1.87
In any case company is undervalued by at least 70% to the worst case right now.
Any thoughts?
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- CXM
- Valuation
Valuation
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 32 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add CXM (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
3.4¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $29.14M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
3.4¢ | 3.6¢ | 3.4¢ | $16.64K | 483.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 61031 | 3.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.6¢ | 65000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 31031 | 0.034 |
1 | 250000 | 0.033 |
3 | 344000 | 0.032 |
1 | 32000 | 0.031 |
3 | 153333 | 0.030 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.036 | 65000 | 1 |
0.038 | 50000 | 1 |
0.039 | 95000 | 1 |
0.040 | 100000 | 1 |
0.041 | 24414 | 1 |
Last trade - 13.43pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
CXM (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
SER
STRATEGIC ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED
David DeTata, Managing Director
David DeTata
Managing Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online