African supply and data is opaque, mainly due to the fact that much is from non public Chinese companies. Just as they like it, so they can run the narrative of over supply.
Sure, we can expect much more supply out of Africa and elsewhere. The question is how much and when? Obviously the current amount combined with China destocking is enough to put supply/demand closer to balance. Over supply would mean Spodumene back at $1000, IMO. Will it get there? We shall find out. If it does, expect many juniors and exploration to fold.
African exponential growth in capacity faces challenges, even for China. For now, they have managed to get a few online. Are they Tier 1 in size and quality. Probably not but the monitoring of Africa and if it can help keep the balance as demand ramps will need watching.
Good News & Bad News, page-35479
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