At 4% average concentrate grade from Nigeria and Zimbabwe, 237kt probably equates to 26kt LCE, and I do note the report refers to tonnes of ore mined (i.e. 4.5 million tones), not expected concentrate production, however, if achieved roughly 500k on concentrate, 56kt LCE, which is ~5% of projected demand next year.
Over CY23 to date, the current volume from Nigeria and Zimbabwe is less than 10% of the total concentrate imported to China, therefore, htf does that drive overall spod market prices down 80% YTD, something very wrong to say the least.
Anyways, this environment is going to kill investment in new supply from explorers and put developers under the pump when coming online. It's still a China only story until it isn't, ex-China conversion capacity can't come quick enough.
Good News & Bad News, page-35493
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