"Possible" is not "Probable" (with Discovery).
Step back: there are a lot of problems ahead, and - most importantly - the timeframes may not be of interest to some of the "hot money" currently riding on this one. A lot got in for the quick kill but are now underwater or roughly at breakeven, and I fear will head for the lifeboats soon. MK2 is starting to look a heck of a lot like MK1, and a few samples of fart gas in a bag may not be enough to convince holders to hold on.
I was hoping that we would cover that gap (19.0-17.5) but it's starting to look more like a breakaway gap to the downside now, so we could see 12.0 before it settles. Confidence is shaken, and it may be weeks or months until it is rebuilt. I'm expecting a period of radio silence from Scott, and that may see the SP drift lower (as traders exit).
Not for me anymore I'm afraid. And watching Roachy moving the dial from bizarre to ridiculous is like watching an old man with the death rattle: when she switches to bearish is when we know it is time to load up again.
Kit
(PS: Damn it. Cut. Goddam fart bags).
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