the game is ON, page-77

Thinking about the future for Neuren feels like a full time job sometimes and while I loved the fact that The Australian referenced Jefferies, US based industry giants and Blackstone all in one story about the company, I still cant help but think that the contract with Acadia does not work in our favour, despite the assurances from Jon to the contrary, and it might not make us as attractive a proposition as I would like. To that end, I have been wondering what would Acadia have to offer to get their hands on Neuren, specifically on 2591 and in a way that rewards holders appropriately.

I firmlybelieve that $10b USD is a fair price for the company and accurately capturesthe current value of the IP for Retts, FX, PW, AM, PH and PWS and any potentialfuture IP value that will be unlocked from a play at Autism as a whole (andpossibly other conditions). I think that $10b USD appropriately captures thecurrent value and future potential, if a TO was to happen today.

That beingsaid, and acknowledging that I have previously argued against any suggestion ofa TO at circa $7b USD, what if Acadia offered $7.5b USD in cash and 1:1 shareplacement for Neuren shares to Acadia shares – apologies for the crudeterminology but you get the point. From what I can find, Neuren has approx 126mshares on issue. If Acadia issued 126m shares at the current price of circa$22, that would be worth around $2.7b USD, which when combined with the upfrontoffer, would bring the total acquisition to approx. $10.2b USD.You would have to think that Acadia and associated entities could muster financial means to make that play??

The more I thinkabout it, the more I like the scenario - $7.5b USD is circa $93 a share, whichwould appropriately reward holders for the excellent IP now, while the 1:1share offer would also provide holders who choose to hold longer, with the notinsignificant upside that will likely flow from any positive plays at Autism,Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Epilepsy, Concussion/TBI and general cognition/memory– whether as a standalone treatment or a complimentary treatment for conditionspecific symptoms. If holders want out, they can sell their Acadia sharesimmediately and still benefit in the same way as if the company was simplyacquired for $10b USD, acknowledging tax implications.

I tend to thinkthat 2591 will end up being like Ivermectin or other safe drugs that offerenormous treatment potential across multiple conditions, so am extremelyoptimistic – some may say naïve/delusional

From my POV asa late 30’s father, $93 a share would be life changing. Not quite to the sameextent as $125 per share (which would equate to circa $10b USD) but it would beextremely significant and make my life much, much easier and provide lots ofoptions for our family, while the 1:1 share placement allows me to hold longerfor the benefit of my children as they reach the age of wanting to buy acar/house etc. It really is the best of both worlds for me.

Just thought I would share and see what others thought of this approach and whether it would be supported by holders?