Wireline recovery of a sample comes down to the tools. I am almost certain that there is reservoir properties that will allow a sample to surface if we can get the sampling tools to co-operate. SM mentioned the MDT tools will be the second string in the hole and they are avoiding the over-pressure area, so this all bodes well for a high chance of success.
Sounds like we are burning through the gear, but with SLB supporting, we have a very high chance of success because i am sure they will have all the information in front of them from the previous logging runs, that says there is a lot of work in the long run for them.
If they dont get it on the wireline runs, then they will get it on test in this side-track. I give the test near 90+% of success, and the wireline somewhat less than that as I am not sure the tool availability in the region at the moment and how willing the company are to burning time waiting on gear if we have tool failures vs coming back and getting a sample under a flow test next year.
On a separate note, I think there is a good case for the company to release some preliminary net pay numbers on the back of this fizzy water sample. They are more comfortable with the saturations given the water sample, and have advanced logs (I am assuming here as I cant recall details of what logs were successfully acquired to date) to help narrow the uncertainty on porosity, On top of this, they have some indications of permeability from at least two pump-out locations. I was disappointed this didn't get discussed / questioned yesterday during the webinar. I think shareholders deserve this.
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Ann: Hydrocarbon gas recovered & evaluation program forward plan, page-778
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