Yoles boffins aside, I think the best way to guestimate revenue is to look at fab revenue and put a number on what percentage of the wafers they are selling will have WBT reram on them. WBT will get paid a royalty on the sale price of the wafer (the fabs revenue)...
(As good as) Signed -
Skywater - $0.25b
DBH - $2.0b
GF - $8.0b
Total so far - $10.25b
Say 30% of the wafers produced use WBT reram... $10.25b * 30% * 2.5% = USD$77m (AUD$120m)...
No scale limitations since all these wafers are already being produced, just replace the flash with reram.
Yet to sign -
Samsung - $13b
UMC - $8b
Tower - $1.5b
Additional total - $22.5b
If 30% wafers use reram, $32.75b * 30% * 2% = USD$196M (AUD$305m)
Over time, reram will replace flash in all but niche requirements so 30% could easily double into the medium term...
Ann: Investor Presentation, page-92
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