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Ann: XTEK AGM Group CEO Address to Shareholders and Update, page-9

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sbondar

877 Posts.

199

24/11/23

10:15

Post #: 71084674

Originally posted by SteveSage: ↑

Making a lot of assumptions on the below (key one being 50% margin on both ballistics and technology services), but if they can maintain their costs at ~$20m per annum (in 2023 they paid ~4m in commissions presumably for the large ballistics order), then it's not shaping up too badly.

What also needs to hold is the ~24m per annum ('run rate') orders in the ballistics area.

FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 1H24 2H24 FY2024

Ballistics Division 16.1 47.0 52.7 21.2 12.0 33.2

- run rate

12.0 12.0 24.0 2m per mth run rate
- additional orders

9.2 9.2

Technology Division 12.1 11.1 36.7 8.5 2.0 10.5

- Services

1.0 2.0 3.0 $15.9m over 48 mths
- Spare Parts

7.5 7.5

Grant Revenues 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Total Revenues 28.3 58.2 89.4 29.7 14.0 43.7

Gross Margin estimate
Gross Margin - Ballistic Division 8.1 23.5 26.4 10.6 6.0 16.6 50%
Gross Margin - Tech Division (Services)

0.5 1.0 1.5 50%
Gross Margin - Tech Division (parts) 1.8 1.7 5.5 1.1 0.0 1.1 15%
Adjust GP -1.7 2.3 1.9

Total Gross profit 8.1 27.4 33.7 12.2 7.0 19.2

Other Income 0.5 0.5 0.1

Expenses 12.5 20.7 24.9 10.0 10.0 20.0

Net Profit Before Tax -3.9 7.2 8.9 2.2 -3.0 -0.8

Expand
An interesting projection. Why do you think the revenue is going to be only 14m in 2H24? That's quite a significant drop.

Upd. Re-read your post above. It's 14m so far and will grow with the new orders, correct?

Last edited by sbondar: 24/11/23

XTE Price at posting: 46.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: XTEK AGM Group CEO Address to Shareholders and Update, page-9

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	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	1H24	2H24	FY2024
Ballistics Division	16.1	47.0	52.7	21.2	12.0	33.2
- run rate				12.0	12.0	24.0	2m per mth run rate
- additional orders				9.2		9.2
Technology Division	12.1	11.1	36.7	8.5	2.0	10.5
- Services				1.0	2.0	3.0	$15.9m over 48 mths
- Spare Parts				7.5		7.5
Grant Revenues	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.0
Total Revenues	28.3	58.2	89.4	29.7	14.0	43.7
							Gross Margin estimate
Gross Margin - Ballistic Division	8.1	23.5	26.4	10.6	6.0	16.6	50%
Gross Margin - Tech Division (Services)				0.5	1.0	1.5	50%
Gross Margin - Tech Division (parts)	1.8	1.7	5.5	1.1	0.0	1.1	15%
Adjust GP	-1.7	2.3	1.9
Total Gross profit	8.1	27.4	33.7	12.2	7.0	19.2
Other Income	0.5	0.5	0.1

Expenses	12.5	20.7	24.9	10.0	10.0	20.0

Net Profit Before Tax	-3.9	7.2	8.9	2.2	-3.0	-0.8

Ann: XTEK AGM Group CEO Address to Shareholders and Update, page-9

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