what are hc people going to do?, page-3

Expecting an obvious sell-off Monday...how far down is the question.
Is Longtom a duster....no...otherwise Apache wouldnt be spending another 6 days testing it...cost for 6 days will be another few million one would think.
We know there is gas there but still dont know the flow rates...nobody knows ...if anyone knew it would be NXS and Apache...if they knew it was a dud why waste more time there.
Why did the share price rise today before the announcement...says to me NXS has very tight lips...usually see a sell off before bad news.
I think most short term traders will be out...most volume went through last Thursday with 20 mill shares, around 40 mill shares has gone through in the last 2 weeks at average price of high 60's...with the price hitting 58c this week I think most would have been stopped out so dont expect too much selling pressure on this front.
So at the end of the day we still dont know about Longtom...doesnt look as good today as it did yesterday.
Grayling should also support price a bit but traders wont start buying really unless NXS price falls low enough or until it gets closer to target depth.
Also a worry to sell Monday for many punters and take a good loss not knowing whether Longtom will be a dud or not...this should provide some support aswell.

Monday may be a good buying oppurtunity...but you need to workout the following things-

NXS should have around 8 mill or so cash in the bank.
NXS still has grayling to be started late next week with an NPV of around $1.50 on top of NXS base valuation.
A number of other major drill targets in the Bass strait but these wont be drilled until probably the 3rd quarter of next year.
NXS seems anxious to find a farmin partner for its Bonaparte field in the NT with an estimated 1.8 trillion cubic feet of gas.
Grayling is also pretty much free carried so no need to raise cash short term.
NXS is looking for farmin partners on a number of fronts.

Im sure there is more to add to the list but cant be bothered right now.

Those who bought at these levels could lose as much 60% plus of their money imo if both Grayling and Longtom are dusters.
If longtom is succesful and I would say chances are maybe 50% now we should get a share price between 70-90c depending on size of field and flow rates.
If grayling is succesful and we get 100mmbl of oil and odds are around 35-50% we should see share price of $1.70ish excluding Longtom results.

So you gotta weigh up the risk reward from here once again.

Good luck...and remember the only sure things in life are death taxes and nurses!!