Not Gunna Be Enough Lithium, page-1892

Always the rainbows and butterflies or doom and gloom. We're more in the latter phase now. Markets are funny.

What matters is the offtakes and producers think mid/long term. No producer will sign to sell under the price that makes sense looking at the supply/demand curves regardless of spot prices. Large buyers look at the same and ultimately sign to secure supply.

I agree with the idea that the big correction now is down to the perceived change of the curves; high interest rates, cost of living crises, war puts people of from rushing to buy electric - this will bounce back IMO, especially if there we'll be regulatory forces to meet climate goals or an oil price jump.

So lower short-term demand, while some mines come online - not great for the price of the product. But what about the many more projects that will need to come online to keep the supply and demand in balance? Why would miners/financiers keep pushing new mines without price incentive? I think the shortage will return mid-term.

In terms of more time for technological maturing of lithium alternatives, such as sodium based batteries: consider this - with the current lithium prices, their price advantage is minimal, if any, and at the same their theoretical volumetric energy density is too close for comfort. I think they make sense for special purpose applications (stationary storage) or LFP alternative in city cars... But not many will complicate their supply chain and manufacturing for a small product mix percentage.
On the other hand we have solid state techs and new applications (high energy density and cycle times -> low emission airliners and shipping).

I guess to summarize: I think the sector is bound to bounce back in the not too distant future. Question is what our moron on a CEO has in store for us short term.

All of the above are just my opinions, not advice.