Margins, sale price minus operating cost are no good
@BSquireI'm wondering how big NVX's share of the capital costs for both projects is going to be. Under normal circumstances, NVX would have to have the funding for their share locked in before the DOE loan is finalised. The sequence of steps/announcements taken by SYR to secure their loan was:
1/ provisional approval granted
2/ FID
3/ CR in quick succession with FID (either next day or hour)
4/ Final approval 6-7 weeks after CR closed successfully
Depending what China does and to get it out the door before Nov 2024, they may loosen the interpretation of the legislation. The DOE loans and grant offices float on a sea of paper.
We know the original greenfield 30kt project was ~$1B. According to
@Sy8, the "next" project is a $40kt greenfield. A simple back of the envelop extrapolation makes the project cost $1.3B (inflation will zero out any economy of scale saving). Assuming NVX gets the full 80% project cost from the LPO and I can't see any reason they won't, they still need to raise $260m.
The cost to get Riverside to 20kt with the grant money is the mystery taking into account sunk costs. With sunk costs are less than $100m, my educated guess would be a minimum of $350m-$450m. Then take the $100m grant of that.
Therefore, NVX needs to raise $500-$600m between now and Nov 2024.
Notby Nov 2024. Hopefully the 1st project (20kt) will be built or close to by then.
(20min delay)