"The leading ASX rare earths stock Lynas (LYC) held its annual meeting during the week.
Given the 35% smashing of prices this year despite western world powers shouting from the bleachers that China’s control of the industry must be broken to ensure decarbonisation, and to protect defence capabilities, it might be assumed the Lynas meeting was a sombre affair.
Afterall, Lynas’ market cap has fallen by $2.88 billion during the year to $6.2 billion.
But Lynas’ ever-effervescent managing director Amanda Lacaze made sure the meeting was upbeat, delivering some soothing words, drawn from a sense of history.
“The market for rare earths continues to grow. One of the things that I think is worth reminding ourselves is that today in 2023, demand is 45% higher than it was in 2019,” Lacaze told the assembled rare earthers.
“We see this trend continuing. It is why we are re-investing in assets in the business ($730 million at a cracking and leaching plant near Kalgoorlie and $500m on its Mt Weld hard-rock mine) to be able to meet demand as it continue to grow.”
Lacaze acknowledged that demand in 2023 had moderated due to the economic slowdown China is still working through.
“But we expect the growth to accelerate right through to 2030,” she said, adding later that Lynas continued to significantly experience more “demand that we have been able to serve”.
There was no price forecasting at the meeting but the broad expectation among experts in the area is for prices for the key magnet rare earths for EV’s and wind turbines will at least double by 2030 to $US120/kg and could possibly go as high as $US160/kg."
Demand outstripping supply is expected as we already knew. Lynas admitting they can't meet demand for their REEs shows how important Halleck Ck will be with ease of processing and sheer scale. The only hard rock deposit that is economically comparable to clay deposits as our metallurgy shows. Another new unique gem in our basket. If memory serves recovery rates range between 83-87% now. As Gibbs put it "grade may not always be king, but scale will always be queen." (Prices forecasted in ranges between $120-160 USD/kg will play favourably into the PEA IMO)
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