"Mark stated that 'over his dead body' would this non-debt component be funded entirely with equity, and that TLG will be exploring opportunities for funding from State, EU or strategic private partners to minimize dilution, including the possibility of receiving upfront payment from major customers for construction costs."
In your analysis, you only considered funding all of the 40% with equity, something Mark at the AGM stated he wouldn't do. The company has also repeatedly said that they'll be aiming for project equity finance, not company equity. Whether that plays out or not is another thing, but when you consider that Talga has other potentially highly lucrative properties (like Talnode-Si), it makes sense to try and limit the amount of the company given away in order to only fund the Vittangi project.
We've seen with the LKAB and Mitsui JV. As one of the largest holders, Mark has plenty of skin in the game and will likely once again refuse to give the company away.
TLG Price at posting:
96.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)