Relentless accumulation continues, page-22

This forum is ignoring the changed macro supply/demand/ risk factors and they absolutely need to be discussed to protect your hard earned.

The heady, boom days of lithium are over although the long term picture is still positive. The spot price of lithium carbonate, dropped by around 50% during the first half of 2023. Supply will grow by 45% this year, amounting to an excess of 1,380 GWh, and while demand will also increase, the oversupply issue will persist until at least 2025 and perhaps a lot longer. I think more oversupply is coming and has been underestimated. The world's biggest car company Toyota says hybrids are better for the environment and sees a hybrid and hydrogen future because the same amount of raw battery material to make a single EV can power 90 hybrids or 6 plug in hybrids. I don't see hybrids as more than denting EV demand but there is uncertainty and the market is risk adverse. Raw material prices have been slashed and that will curtail investment in new projects, Lag time to production will increase and drive volatility which WC8 is now starting to experience. Expect a lot more. Investor confidence in companies like WC8 has fallen. The WC8 SP peaked at 91 cps and then crashed to 74 cps. It first caught my eye when it had a market cap approaching $1B, that was crazy and shorters thought so too. Short positions are being taken on many lithium companies which inevitably means that there will be volatility in the share prices as shorters try to hit stop loss positions.

Now the MC is $890m but still overvalued imo. It is hard to predict share prices at this time. 70 cps this week is suggested by the technicals eg MACD indicates a strong bearish signal. But in a new high volatile environment the SP will be manipulated so anything is possible. In the medium term mid 60 cps is likely imo. The company is not high risk right now but its value definitely is. But don’t get me wrong, WC8 has a lot going for it, the resource is good but there are now headwinds with many good competing resources.

Be sceptical. I see well known rampers here. Don’t get sucked into TO talk. ‘It’s just a matter of time before we are acquired at many multiples?’ Not impossible but very unlikely. “Relentless accumulation” more BS, ignore it.