Hello All,
Long term holder here.
Next 6 Months will be constructive for the company however nothing that will move the SP in a significant fashion upwards. I think 30 cents will be the max SP if you look at the current trend.
DFS for broken hill (April), Permitting activities for Refinery (1st QTR), Testing 3rd party samples (1st Half) and Detailed engineering for refinery (1st Half) are important but not SP prime movers.
Financing, Binding offtakes/partner agreement and price of the metal are the 3 that move stocks especially at the mining cycle stage COB is at. (Towards end in Development)
Unfortunately, I don't see the price of the metal moving for 2024. I noticed articles on a few EV makers delaying some of their operations. Supply and demand for 2024 will encourage flatness in the price.
SP Moving events.
2024
The SP moving announcement will come with the financing-binding agreement between COB and Iwatani Corp for the Refinery. This in my opinion is the major/sole announcement that we should all be hanging our hats on for 2024. This is expected midyear according to the COB timeline.
COB 2024 SP Prediction = 50 Cents.
2025
We will see higher price movements in the metal. This is the year, supply and demand start to change. If you look at all the industry reports, this is the year for trend change. Also, a financing agreement for Broken Hill will come in which will also be a major SP mover. It will be hard to predict SP price here though companies that find success in moving to production have very high market caps that sometimes don't match the financial metrics. I look at COB like I do with Lynas Corp. Lynas in Rare earths that were a first mover, in more of a niche space all alone against China. COB with cobalt is the same, they will be a first mover all alone in a space against China. Premiums are provided to companies like these hence my investment in COB.
I was invested in Lynas for the reasons mentioned above however I sold way to early. COB would be a great buy now and then a sell in 2026 when the market prices in a premium.
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