“Best way to ward off a T/O is a JV at the project level (50% etc) which should see a healthy increase in Market Cap/SP. Next 6 months is critical, I think.”
well you’ve answered your own t/o musings with that comment right there. We have all known since the DFS almost a year ago that Francis and Vulcan intend to do phase 1 JV at project level, it’s been known for ages and publicly spoken about by Francis on countless occasions, but glad to see you’re calling it your own opinion….well done. JV= cross against takeover.
despite the massive upside and great potential of the project there is still a lot of risk, scaling up and proving out the tech still lies ahead, what major wants to take on all that risk and capex, i literally cannot think of one. Majors don’t buy unproven, they move in when the proof and the revenue are there, right now Vulcan has neither. cross.
how much of Vulcan does Francis own ? And Stellantis? 20% throw in Resos and Gina and John ( you know who all of them are right ?) and that’s north of 30% of the company. Add in those other large investors aligned with Francis’ vision and I’d guess that’s 50% of the company in a voting block that wouldn’t accept a t/o offer and any price right now.
those top holders have vision, have a vested interest not only in the project but the environmental outcomes and contributions that this project will make, and are all aligned in seeing this groundbreaking project of European significance through to well beyond production. I cant see any major getting a bid over the line with that solid voting block. just as oil and gas majors want to be involved in such a project so do our current stake holders so why would they want to sell out, especially given they’re mostly significantly down on their investments. another cross against t/o.
Sura, thanks for mentioning the IP and licensing work going on on Bolivia, this is a massive part of vulcans potential and at the moment it is unrealised value, why the board and management would entertain a t/o at these tiny levels when the IP alone is worth multiples I can’t imagine. cross.
take note Rameriz, Sura like myself is extremely bullish on Vulcan but we always counter our claims and positivity with the risks and speed bumps that stand in Vulcan’s way. Anyone can say something but justifying those thoughts is necessary in a volatile and hostile forum like HC.
“a screaming cash cow” you say…..€2.5m from geo in a quarter is a cash cow ??? Our wage burn rate is €4m per month !!! that’s €10m just on wages per quarter. What major wants to take on a company that has outgoing 4x income on wages alone ? That couldn’t make less sense. That’s €40m per year on wages and you think €2.5m a quarter makes it a cash cow? cross.
then there’s the 2+ years until production and the billion odd in debt, this isn’t hard rock, this isn’t WA lithium where the dig it up and crush process is well known and well run and companies can be bought because capex is $300m and production timelines can happen in 12 months. DLE + geo heat and energy has never been done, majors will take a wait and see approach imo, yes they’re interested in a jv but not a t/o, down the track possibly but not now.
one last rebuttal to your comment - “lithium price could be zero and Vulcan will still make profit for 5 years”……how a company can make profit with a 4 year payback on close to a billion debt with no revenue is an interesting theory better suited to quantum physics I think. make a profit with no lithium revenue and a billion of debt !! Wow. Oh wait I guess that’s where the €2.5m per quarter is going to come into play….my calculator must be broken because I can’t get that math to work.
I’ve probably been a little sarcastic in this reply but given i “have no idea what I’m talking about” it shouldn’t matter I guess, just have a quick look at my “sentiment” before you go, I hold Vulcan and say it’s a buy, I have been holding and saying it’s a buy since I first bought in 2020….i have spent far too much of my life getting to know Vulcan, the bags I’ve made have been great but I continue to hold a significant position because there are more bags to come and in my opinion they’ll be delivered by a free and independent Vulcan !!
now before you spill your latte in your haste to reply with quick wit and insults, have a re read, I think it makes sense.
VUL Price at posting:
$2.24 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)