One of the key things for lithium price stability is reducing China's dominance in the market. A while ago I posted the following graph at the bottom of this post -
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With China so dominant in downstream markets they can influence pricing. Lithium carbonate prices have fallen, and the view is that transcends through to spodumene prices despite spodumene prices been above what most lithium miners put into their DFS. I just wonder whether China has been cutting its inventories as a means to reduce import prices?
EV battery size 45KWhBelow is an image I done a while back on LCE and graphite demand levels at various demand scenarios (vehicles - obviously then excluding demand for lithium's other uses and the growing storage energy demand):
Prices are falling of late because in effect China could be again reducing inventory levels - that won't last long because with EV growth prices will rebound because ultimately inventory needs restocking. From this link is this chart -
Lithium market to remain in deficit despite supply efforts and price volatility: Macquarie (marketindex.com.au): This chart is from November 2022 and what it shows is inventories going down - I haven't seen a subsequent chart so wondering if anyone has.
After this publication I think prices went back up as inventory levels rose again but now prices are falling I just wonder how much destocking again happened last few months? To repeat this is an old chart from last November so wondering how this chart would look like in 2023 - and data I can't find btw.
I don't think anyone is seriously forecasting a severe slowdown in EV demand by the way. I would be interested if anyone has seen recent data on Chinese inventory levels.All IMO
(20min delay)