Storm in a tea cup!!!!
Degradation of the system continues due to an influx of very dry air!
For all the adjectives like "Monster" and "Zombie" used to describe the system it may even not be left with much moisture (Rain).
As usual the media and climate doomists should be ashamed of themselves.
Latest from JTWC
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TOTHE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
AFTER SPEEDING UP AND TAKING A MORESOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVERNIGHT, TC 03P APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN ABIT, AND SHIFTING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVERTHE PAST SIX HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN, THEDEPTH OF THE STEERING LEVEL HAS SHIFTED DOWNWARDS, WITH THE TOP OFTHE STEERING COLUMN NOW ASSESSED TO BE AROUND 500MB. AT 500MB, THESTEERING RIDGE IS ORIENTED ON A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS,WHICH EXPLAINS THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION. LOOKINGFORWARD, THE RIDGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO APOSITION NORTH OF BRISBANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WILLALLOW TC 03P TO TRACE A SHALLOW WAVE-LIKE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48.
LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48, VERY NEAR CAIRNS,AUSTRALIA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKINGWESTWARD OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA.IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFTWILL CAP ANY CONVECTION WHICH MANAGES TO COOK OFF FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS OR SO. THUS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEWIND FIELD SPINS DOWN. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TOINSIST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOISTEN UP AFTER TAU 24, WHILESHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOWPERSISTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY TO 50-55KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 03P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN ANDULTIMATELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOODAGREEMENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE HAFS-A AND HWRFTRACKERS WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK, WITH THESYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF FLINDERS REEF AND MAKING LANDFALL WELLSOUTH OF CAIRNS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPEDAROUND THE CONSENSUS MEAN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OFTHE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 24, HEDGED CLOSER TO THE HAFS-A ANDHWRF SOLUTIONS, AS THESE TWO MODELS SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THEEARLIER JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE JTWC FORECASTTRACKS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGHTHE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITHA FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN INTENSIFICATION SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLYAFTER TAU 24.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES NOREINTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM AND GFS) ARE THEONLY MODELS SUGGESTING A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE MEAN THROUGH TAU 24, THEN SHIFTS ABOUTHIGHER THAN THE MEAN, UP TO 10 KNOTS HIGHER AT TAU 48, BUT IN LINEWITH THE COAMPS-TC GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECASTIS LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF WHEN THEATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTION.
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